Forecast Discussion for GSP NWS Office
000
FXUS62 KGSP 281835
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
235 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure settles over the Southeast States to start the
weekend.  A warming trend is expected Friday through the first part
of next week, with temperatures well above normal. A cold front is
forecast to reach our region from the northwest in the middle of the
week bringing another chance of rain and cooler temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Thursday: Clouds will continue to move out of the
area by evening as an upper trough moves east of the area. Heights
rise Friday as an upper ridge begins moving in from the west. At the
surface, the center of high pressure moves east from the Lower MS
River valley into southern GA by the border with a weak lee trough
developing by Friday afternoon.

Gusty winds should diminish through the evening but won`t go calm as
some pressure gradient remains over the area. This will keep at
least a light wind in place across most of the area to mar the
otherwise good radiational cooling conditions under clear skies.
Lows will be 5 degrees below normal. The wind will also keep
widespread frost from forming. However, expect patchy frost in
sheltered or normally cooler locations.

Winds pick back up from the west on Friday with mixing and the lee
trough developing. Highs will be up to 5 degrees above normal.
Although the overall atmosphere won`t be as dry Friday, deep mixing
and westerly flow will promote drying. Have gone below the model
blend for dew points. This, with the warmer temps, will create RH
values 25 percent or below for much of the CWFA. Therefore, Fire
Danger Statements may be needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM EDT Thursday: No major changes for the short term
forecast period. Overall it`s looking mostly dry and warm for Easter
Weekend. Flat upper ridging will build across the southern and
eastern US through the period. At the sfc, dry high pressure will be
centered over Florida Friday night before gradually nudging east
ward into the western Atlantic Saturday into Sunday night.
Meanwhile, a cold front will stall across the Midwest/Ohio Valley
Saturday into sunday. The sfc ridge should help keep the majority of
the moisture associated with the front through the period. However,
with the sfc high retreating farther to the south and east on
Sunday, this may allow enough moisture to reach down across the
NC/TN border to squeak out some rain showers. Thus, have slight
chance PoPs along the spine of the southern Appalachians on Sunday.
Moisture looks to retreat northward Sunday night leading to drier
conditions. Temps will gradually warm through the short term period
thanks to W/SW flow. Lows start out a few degrees climo Friday
night, becoming 8-10 degrees above climo Saturday night and around
15 degrees above climo Sunday night. Temps east of the mountains
should climb into the mid 70s on Saturday, with the upper 70s to
lower 80s on Sunday. Highs on Saturday will start out 7-10 degrees
above climo, becoming 10-15 degrees above climo on Sunday. Breezy
winds will develop throughout the day Saturday, remaining elevated
across the mountains through Sunday. Breezy winds return again
Sunday afternoon east of the mountains, but should generally be
lighter compared to Saturday. Gusts should remain below advisory
criteria through the period. RH values look to drop below 30% across
the mountain valleys and east of the mountains Saturday afternoon.
This combined with breezy winds may lead to fire wx concerns the
first half of the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday: Upper ridging amplifies over the eastern
US ahead of an upper trough digs across the western US Monday into
Monday night. The upper trough will continue pushing east across the
central US Tuesday into Tuesday night while a large upper low
develops over the Great Lakes Region. The upper low will push
eastward across the Ohio Valley on Wednesday before pushing into the
Mid-Atlantic region Wednesday night. Meanwhile, the sfc low will
track out of the south/central Plains Monday, ending up in the
Midwest/Great Lakes Region by Tuesday. The associated cold front
will track across the Carolinas late Tuesday into early Wednesday
increasing shower and thunderstorm chances. Since the 12Z guidance
has the FROPA tracking across the CWA outside of peak heating, this
may help offset the severe weather potential somewhat. The cold
front should push east of the western Carolinas throughout the day
Wednesday, allowing rain chances to gradually diminish east of the
mountains. However, NW flow rain showers look to linger along the
NC/TN border Wednesday through late Wednesday afternoon, before
possibly transitioning to NW flow snow showers briefly Wednesday
evening into late Wednesday night as CAA allows temps to drop behind
the departing front. Have capped PoPs to chance across the western
zones Monday into Monday night as the 12Z GFS and ECMWF show the
potential for some showers, and perhaps thunderstorms, during this
time frame well ahead of the main FROPA. Have higher PoPs Tuesday
into Tuesday night as the FROPA approaches out of the west. Capped
PoPs to chance on Wednesday since activity will be winding down
throughout the day. Temps will remain well above climo early next
week ahead of the front, with below climo temps expected along and
behind the front middle of the week. Low-end wind gusts are possible
Monday afternoon, mainly east of the mountains. Winds will increase
across the entire forecast area on Tuesday as the cold front
approaches out of the west. Winds increase further on Wednesday as
the cold front tracks across the CWA, and look to linger across the
mountains Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Stratocu/altocu is slowly moving east and
south of the area with thinning cirrus crossing the area. These
clouds should continue moving east with SKC by evening. Gusty
northerly winds this afternoon will diminish by early evening,
midnight at KAVL, with lighter WNW wind overnight, NNW at KAVL. SKC
expected through the day Friday. NNW wind becomes gusty again at
KAVL. Elsewhere, westerly winds pick back up to around 10 kts with
low end gusts possible as a lee trough develops. Guidance can`t
agree on WNW or WSW for KCLT, so we`ll likely have to deal with
crosswinds there Friday.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to persist across the terminal
forecast area thru the weekend as dry high pressure lingers over the
region. Rain will return by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, but
the details are murky at this point.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Low end gusty winds and low RH values are in place across the area
this afternoon. The Fire Danger Statement for NE GA will continue
through expiration.

Low RH values are expected again Friday with deep mixing and
westerly flow. Winds, although occasionally gusty, will not be as
strong. However, Fire Danger Statements may still be needed,
especially for NE GA.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Increased Fire Danger until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ010-
     017-018-026-028-029.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...RWH
FIRE WEATHER...RWH

NWS GSP Office Area Forecast Discussion