Forecast Discussion for GSP NWS Office
000
FXUS62 KGSP 170623
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
123 AM EST Mon Jan 17 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong winter storm will move from the Carolinas toward New
England on Monday with cold high pressure in control of our weather
into mid week.  Cold and breezy conditions are expected on Monday
with lingering snow showers near the Tennessee border. Temperatures
will rebound to near normal mid-week ahead of our next cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 115 am EST Monday: Trailing deformation zone associated with
departing upper low is resulting in light snow and/or flurries
across the mountains and portions of the foothills early this
morning. Snow showers are expected to become increasingly confined
to the TN border through the morning as def zone lifts northeast and
a decent NW flow snow scenario develops. A relatively strong
secondary short wave drops in behind the departing upper low with
strong low level northwesterly flow and continued low level upslope
moisture. Additional accumulating snowfall expected with this, but
mainly across the higher elevations near the TN border. Expect gusty
NW winds to develop across the mountains over the next few hours,
continuing through the day. The Winter Storm Warning was extended
into Monday evening for the NC/TN border counties to account for the
additional snowfall accumulations as well as for the gusty NW winds
leading to below zero wind chills across portions of the warning
area. Lows this morning around 10 degrees below normal and highs
around 15 degrees below normal.

Outside of the mountains, expect clearing skies from west to east
later this evening into the overnight with mostly clear skies
Monday. That said, some clouds could break containment and spread
across the area from the mountains. Gusty W to NW winds expected to
redevelop this evening and continue into Monday. Lows this morning
around 5 degrees below normal and highs 10 to 15 degrees below
normal. Winds taper off across the area Monday night with the NW
flow snow and clouds diminishing through the night. Lows will be 10
to 15 degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 105 PM Sunday...Northwest flow snow continues to taper off
early Tue with little to no accum expected thru mid morning.
Continued cold is in store Tue/Wed as a Canadian sfc high crosses
the region and maintains MaxTs arnd 10 degrees below normal each
day. Some melting of snowpack anticipated Tue night across the mtns
will allow for black ice formation as overnight winds weaken to near
calm. Still looks good for a quickly developing cold front crossing
the area Wed thru Wed night. The colder sfc-layer air will remain
across the NC mtns and nrn NC Piedmont, where a good shot of accum
snow is anticipated across the higher NC mtn elevations. Total snow
will likely approach advisory level, which will continue to be
addressed as we near the event.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM Sunday...Not much change in the sensible wx fcst thru
the ext period. The models are still struggling with a northern and
southern stream interaction Fri thru Sat, with the latest GFS now
much further east into the Atl with a developing sfc low. This would
bring little chance of precip across the area, while the 00z versions
of the CMC/ECMWF have stuck to their solns bringing a good amt of
snowfall to the entire fcst area Fri into Sat. The latest GFS also
brings in a suspicious looking srn steam low out of nrn Mexico Sat,
which seems unlikely, yet would bring mixed wintry precip across the
srn zones and decent snowfall amts north. So, with much to be worked
out in the late period, have maintained generally low chance PoPs
throughout that timeframe. Temps also have some uncertainty with them
as a cA airmass should begin mixing into the area Fri. For now, have
maxTs held abt 5 degrees below normal Thu, then about 15-20 degrees
below normal Fri/Sat. Mints are expected in 20s non/mtns and teens
across the mtn valleys each morning.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Lingering IFR cigs at KGMU/KGSP/KCLT are
expected to scatter/lift over the next 1-3 hours. Brief -SN/flurries
will also remain possible at KAVL over the next 1-2 hours, which
could lower cigs/visby. VFR conditions are otherwise expected at all
sites by 09/10Z. Gusty winds will develop from the NW at KAVL and
the W/SW at all other sites between 06 and 09Z. Gusts will generally
be 25-30 kts at KAVL and around 20 kts at all other sites. Skies
will otherwise gradually clear through the morning, with mostly SKC
conditions expected through the end of the period.

Outlook: High pressure builds in on Tuesday, before another cold
front pushes through late Wednesday into early Thursday with precip
and associated restrictions. Cold high pressure builds back into the
area later Thursday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for GAZ010-
     017-018-026-028.
NC...Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for
     NCZ035>037-053-056-057-059-062>065-068>071-501>510.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for NCZ033-
     048>052-058.
SC...Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for
     SCZ001>010.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...AP/JDL/RWH
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...JDL

NWS GSP Office Area Forecast Discussion